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Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."

New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion

The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Substantive Discussion

Ideological statements for and against unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.

"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the essentials. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling financial and societal data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Arguments range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and stimulate conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Parallel Votes

A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' UK heritage.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.

Possibility of Referendum

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, justified perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but all factions has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."