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Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare

The sequence of contrasting events captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: positive announcements are released from various governments. Considerable effort is devoted on managing particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".

Nighttime Reality

As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to intercept incoming guided weapons roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: multiple launches fired to intercept a hostile projectile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, most likely provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from devastation and additional electricity failures.

Persistent Threats

Soon after, a automatic firearm opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – probably imported technology. Sadly, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its target.

Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and utility failures in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.

Failed Diplomacy

The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.

Every new approach from American administration follows the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This cycle will, certainly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is convenient to criticize specific actors of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington operates on a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.

The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the near future.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are nearing depletion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leadership remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its advantage.

Existing Situation

Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the flag against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.

These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.

Summary and Prospects

It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with calming attempts of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new proposals based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and demonstrate specific hesitation to change the course of events, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.